Coronavirus Modeling Work Paused by Arizona Health Department

On May 4, 2020, the Arizona Department of Health Services ordered scientists to "pause" work on modeling the state's coronavirus outbreak. The scientists, who are based at Arizona State University (ASU) and the University of Arizona (UA), received an email from the bureau chief for public health statistics at the Arizona Department of Health Services, Steven Bailey, indicating that that "department leadership" had requested that "all current work on projections and modeling" be put on hold. The email was sent shortly after Arizona Governor, Doug Ducey, accelerated plans to re-open businesses in the state. The Governor declared that the state was "headed in the right direction," with the number of coronavirus infections showing a "downward trajectory." However, that claim was contradicted by the ASU and AU scientists' modeling, which showed that infections would not peak until mid-May. The Governor's office subsequently told reporters that the decision to pause modeling work "had nothing to do with" the planned reopening of the state, but some public health experts have expressed concern that the Department of Health Services is trying to hide inconvenient data.

Update:

On May 6, 2020, ASU confirmed that it would continue its COVID modeling work, relying on data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency after the state ended ASU researcher's access to special data sets. Following ASU's announcement, U.S. Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) tweeted a statement saying she was "grateful" for the continued modeling work, and that she would "rely on their findings and conclusions in [her] work to keep Arizonans healthy, safe, and economically secure."