The Commerce Department has indefinitely suspended work on part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Atlas 15 project, which provides critical data for predicting extreme rainfall events and assessing how climate change impacts these events.
The project was meant to be published in two parts, with the first volume detailing current rainfall risks and the second volume projecting future risks. The first volume, which relies on historical observations, is still expected to be published by the end of the year. However, the second volume has been delayed for months after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick ordered a review.
Last year, a pilot version of Atlas 15 was released for Montana, providing current and projected precipitation estimates. It indicated that 1-in-100-year rainfall rates could increase by more than a tenth of an inch per hour if warming persists. Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications research at the nonprofit First Street Foundation, noted that flood-prone areas like the Northeast and Appalachia could experience even greater increases in extreme weather events. Without NOAA resuming work on volume two, states may not know what changes to expect.
Update: On July 18, 2025, NOAA was permitted to continue work on both volumes of the Atlas 15 database.