Accuracy of Scientific Models Questioned by House Members

On April 8, 2020, Representatives Chip Roy, Paul Gosar, Thomas Massie, and Glen Grothman wrote to the Chair of the House Committee on Oversight and Reform requesting a formal hearing to investigate the accuracy of models used to predict the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Representatives erroneously suggested that the models may be "flawed," claiming that they "have exhibited conflicting data over time, as well as within a comparison of the models themselves." The Representatives also expressed concern that the "models have . . . undergone multiple wildly varying revisions." Those concerns have been dismissed by public health experts, who note that model results are expected to change over time, as the underlying assumptions are updated. For example, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease Dr. Anthony Fauci has explained that "[m]odels are as good as the assumptions you put in them, and as we get more data, then you put it in and that might change." Others have complained that the Representatives appear to be implying that the models have been distorted -- a claim for which there is no evidence. The interim director of Harvard's Center for Climate, Health and the Global Environment Aaron Bernstein told reporters that "[a]ny insinuation that scientists distorted their models into scaring people and wrecking our economy is not only wrongheaded, it smacks of an ulterior motive for even raising it."